Targeting the “good company” agency Nuggets left opportunity
On August 21, Zhonghong shares closed at 0.81 yuan/share, while at the same time, although Guizhou Moutai experienced recent adjustments, its share price remained stable at 600 yuan/share. Investors from the China Securities Journal said that considering the performance of individual stocks, liquidity and other factors, the overall investment style of the current organization is biased towards leading enterprises, and this trend is expected to be more obvious in the future. Focusing on the main line of performance, institutional investors are paying more attention to the mining of high-quality companies and strengthening the tracking of performance. As the focus of the A-share market moves down as a whole, the blue-chip white horses represented by the blue-chip white horses also have a callback, but this provides a window for the layout on the left.
poor stocks continue to be marginalized
Recently, due to financial reports allegedly false records were investigated by the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau, Zhonghong shares announced that as of August 20, the company's accumulated overdue debts and principals totaled 5.08 billion yuan. So far, from the perspective of the A-share market, Zhonghong shares have been the third stocks that have fallen below 1 yuan/share since 2018. In the Hong Kong stock market, investors usually refer to stocks whose stock price is lower than 1 yuan/share. For the “penny shares”, this title is used in the A-share market. prior to Zhonghong, Jinya Technology and *ST Hairun had also become “penny shares.”
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Not only that, but the A-share market's stock price hovering above 1 yuan is also a lot, and it is increasing. The financial data big data terminal shows that as of August 21, the A-share “pre-sales stock” (share price between 1 yuan and 1.99 yuan) reached 29, of which 16 were ST and *ST shares, according to the recent release. In the 2018 semi-annual report, the net profit of most ST shares attributable to shareholders of the parent company was a loss.
In the opinion of some analysts, the frequent appearance of “penny shares” and “pre-feasury stocks” can be said to be a typical embodiment of A-share liquidity and valuation differentiation. Hu Limei, head of investment at Zheshang Assets and Investment Investment Headquarters, told the China Securities Journal that the volume of transactions in the overseas market was mainly concentrated in leading companies. There was little or no trading volume in small companies. The trend of A shares is becoming more and more obvious.
The reasons for this trend include: from the perspective of industry competition, the competitive advantage of most leading enterprises in the industry is becoming more and more obvious; A-shares have previously speculated that the atmosphere of small stocks is relatively strong, with stricter supervision, perfect market construction, and drastic enthusiasm for speculation With the release of new policies such as delisting, the value of shell resources has been declining. Since last year, the incremental funds of A shares have mainly been funds from the north. These funds mainly prefer blue-chip white horses, and their investment style also affects the market; In the case of inactivity, institutions prefer stocks with good liquidity.
Overall, analysts pointed out that the continued marginalization of small-cap stocks is one of the characteristics of the A-share ecological changes in the past two years, which is generally recognized by the institutions, and the situation of the two will gradually become more and more obvious. .
pay attention to the company's performance considerations
It is in the above-mentioned background that the reporter learned that institutional investors have paid more and more attention to the excavation of excellent “good companies” with fundamentals and strengthened the tracking of their performance verification.
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Zhao Xiaodong, director of equity investment of Guohai Franklin Fund, said that in the past two years, the ecological changes and market characteristics of A shares, the selection of stocks, in addition to safety margins, industry growth space and other factors, currently need to pay attention to the selection of outstanding companies. “When the market was keen on speculation, good companies are not necessarily good stocks, but now the market returns to value investment, and good companies are good stocks.”
“With regard to the main line of performance, the company is more concerned with the comprehensive judgment of the company's current prosperity, company business, product durability and other factors to find investment opportunities.” Zhong peng, general manager and investment director of Zhongyu Investment, told reporters.
“It’s difficult to turn around in the wrong direction.” Dai Kang, chief strategist of GF Securities, said that this year’s big market position was close to returning to the low point of 2016, but the increase in individual stocks was already in the north. Analysis of the 2016 A-share stock price increase structure, of which only 20% of the company achieved positive excess returns, while the negative excess income company accounted for nearly 80%, the stock market “two-eight differentiation” phenomenon expanded, in which the stock price doubled and fell more than 60% of the company The amount is equal.
Dai Kang further said that the history of “A-share bad money expelling good money” is gone forever, and the bull market of blue-chip stocks is still going on, and the bear market of the bad stocks is getting worse. Taking the ROE for each financial period and the subsequent quarterly price increase and decrease as a measure, the stocks with low ROE prices have underperformed since 2017. Taking the growth rate of net profit for each financial period and the subsequent quarterly increase and decrease as the indicators, the stocks with different growth rates since 2017 have further widened in the ups and downs.
Based on the consideration of performance, with the recent release of the semi-annual report of 2018, some blue-chip white horse stocks that failed to meet expectations were also killed. On August 18, Yunnan Baiyao disclosed its first-half results. The mid-year report showed that although the net profit exceeded 1.6 billion yuan, it was significantly lower than market expectations. On the following trading day, Yunnan Baiyao fell more than 6%. Recently, the White Horse stocks such as Midea Group and Guizhou Maotai have also seen a market correction, and the stock price has been tested.
In this regard, institutional sources said that the main business of Midea Group is home appliances, etc. The home appliance industry belongs to the downstream of real estate. As the government continues to regulate the real estate market, the market is worried about the real estate industry chain, which is worried about the performance of Midea Group. Guizhou Maotai's performance was stable, and its growth rate in the second quarter was relatively high. However, due to the relatively high base last year, the organization expects the third quarter performance growth to drop significantly.
Hu Limei said that the performance of listed companies is affected by various factors, and sometimes it is normal to fail to meet expectations. For the firm and optimistic stocks, if the company's performance is not up to expectations in the short term, it will analyze the reasons behind it. If the decline in performance does not affect its core competitiveness, the performance continuity is still there, and the stock will not be sold because the short-term performance is not up to expectations.
Grab the left side layout opportunity
With the disclosure of the semi-annual report of listed companies in 2018 coming to an end, fund managers are keen to make a layout around the semi-annual report, closely following the performance certainty and leading companies.
According to the data, as of August 21, 1146 of the 3,536 A-share listed companies have announced their first half of 2018, and the overall performance is improving. From the growth of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, 840 have achieved positive growth year-on-year. , accounting for 73.30%, 218 year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%.
Gao Ting, chief strategist at UBS Securities China, said that by industry, industry (building, toll roads, machinery, electrical equipment), real estate, materials (steel and iron), consumer goods (automobiles, accommodation, liquor), IT software / Media (cloud, online video, advertising), independent power producers and insurance interim results may exceed expectations.
Yuan pengtao said that in the current A-share market, there are still many industries in a stable or high-speed growth stage, and investors should seize the opportunity on the left side. In the long run, it is also a good layout stage .
An investment manager of a management agency told reporters that the market outlook is optimistic about the investment opportunities of blue-chip stocks. At this stage, the company will strive to produce more products. For investors, the current timing is better, but the specific time to buy remains to be confirmed.
The current overall market for A-shares also provides an opportunity for the layout of blue-chip stocks. Market participants believe that the current valuation from the fundamentals, the relative position of the technical side, or the time period of the market adjustment shows the opportunity to do more in stages.
Zhuque Investment said that the A-shares have entered the low valuation range as a whole, and the valuation has fallen into the strategic allocation range of value investors and institutions, which undoubtedly reduced the possibility of a sharp decline in the market. policy warming will also provide positive factors for the expected recovery of the market. In operation, under the premise of continuously strengthening the shareholding structure, the middle and high positions will actively participate in the bottom construction. In the near future, the attention to the semi-annual report will gradually increase. From the recent reaction of most companies’ share prices to performance, the market is also paying more and more attention to the stability and sustainability of performance. In the stock selection, the overall optimism is maintained. We firmly adhere to the in-depth study of the industrial chain, tap the long-term growth of the prosperous industry advantage company, and adhere to the concept of long-term value investment.
Wang Fuhui, assistant general manager of Haifutong, said that it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality companies that have passed through the cycle. Liquor, medicine, banking, insurance, etc., as long-term holdings of institutions, have recently been passively lightened by some institutions due to market decline and RMB depreciation. In view, the relevant leading enterprises still have investment value, and should seize the opportunity of excessive underestimation.
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The article was transferred from: http://www.xinhuanet.com/money/2018-08/22/c_1123306301.htm